200
FXUS62 KTBW 181813
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
213 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the overall forecast thinking from yesterday.
Ridging aloft over the Gulf will generally remain over the region
through the next several days while surface high pressure
stretches across the peninsula from the Atlantic. This setup will
keep a relatively light southwest low-level flow in place across
the local area and keep rain chances low. The main story will be
the heat, with highs each day topping out in the mid to sometimes
upper 90s away from the coast and heat indices reaching the low
100s.

As we head toward the end of the week, ridging starts to flatten as
troughing moves by to our north. An associated frontal boundary will
move into the southeast and eventually over Florida on Thursday,
bringing just a 20-30% chance for rain before high pressure builds
back in for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some patchy
fog could form overnight, but limited impacts are expected for the
TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will keep light south to southwest winds in place over
the waters over the next several days. No headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected tonight and early
Monday morning, mainly for the Nature Coast region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  77  92 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  76  93  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  74  96  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  75  90  75  90 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  68  93  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  89  78  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Carlisle
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion