576
FXUS62 KTBW 310750
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
350 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Some areas of sea fog, with patchy fog on land, will remain
possible early this morning as southerly flow continues to bring
low level moisture northward. For the remainder of the day, weak
high pressure will continue to ridge west across the Florida
peninsula as a cool front moves through the southeast states.
Daytime heating will combine with the enough moisture to allow
some afternoon and evening convection to develop over the interior
and move east. At the same time the front approaching from the
north will be weakening and a couple of showers or thunderstorms
could move into the northern Nature Coast late this afternoon and
tonight. The overall severe threat doesn`t look to high as the
flow will become parallel to the boundary this afternoon and any
threat looks to diminish quickly as the upper level shortwave
moves past the area early tonight.

For Tuesday the front will washout to the north with the surface
high continuing to ridge west across the region keeping a south
to southwest flow across the region. A stray shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out once again over the interior
during the afternoon and early evening as enough moisture will
remain in place.

For Wednesday through Saturday, a larger and stronger area of high
pressure will setup well out in the Atlantic Ocean setting up
stronger southeasterly flow. Some drier air will return with very
little if any chance of seeing convection, but allowing
temperatures to climb to around 90 over inland areas each
afternoon.

Later in the weekend into early next week, the next storm system
will be moving into the eastern U.S. with increasing moisture
leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas of MVFR conditions with some local IFR/LIFR ceilings will be
possible early this morning, then VFR conditions should return by
mid-morning and continue into tonight. Light southeast to south
winds early this morning will increase to around 10 knots by
midday, shift to southwest to west at around 10 knots by late
afternoon, and then diminish and become light later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

As high pressure ridges over Florida and into the gulf, light
southerly winds and seas 2 feet or less will persist into early
tonight, but there is a potential for some areas of sea fog this
morning. A weak cool front will approach from the north later
tonight bringing a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms to
the northern waters. This front will washout Tuesday with high
pressure building back in by midweek setting up a southeasterly
flow at around 15 knots or less through the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Moist southerly flow will continue with ample moisture and some
instability which will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms over
the interior later this afternoon and early evening. A weakening
cool front will approach from the north later today and tonight
bringing the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms to the
northern Nature Coast. Dispersion values will be rather high this
afternoon over the interior. For the remainder of the week, a warm
and stable airmass will setup with dewpoints remaining high enough to
keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  71  86  72 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  87  69  89  71 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  89  69  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  84  70  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  87  65  87  64 /   0  10  10   0
SPG  82  71  83  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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